According to the data released by the Ministry of Commerce on the 6th, the price of pork started to increase week by week in August after “dumping†in July. In addition to leading the rise in pork prices, vegetable prices rebounded, egg and cooking oil prices rose faster, and food prices continued to rise. Market analysis believes that in the August when the prices of agricultural products (14.08, -0.30, -2.09%) continue to rise, the consumer price index (CPI) will increase by a month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase will only fall due to the fall of hikes.
Judging that the high pork prices will be monitored by the Ministry of Commerce in recent years, in the second two weeks of July, the price of pork in our country once fell back. However, by August, this situation has reversed. During the five-week period from August 1 to September 2, the price of pork has risen from flat to high and the increase has continued to increase.
The monitoring of other institutions also proved the high price of pork. The average price change of main foods in 50 cities of the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from August 21 to 30, the price of back hips per kilogram of pork rose by 0.7% from the previous period, and the price of pork rose by 0.5% from the previous period. According to the monitoring of the China Live Pigs Warning Network, on September 5, the price of piglets reached 46.46 yuan kilograms, up 131.5% year-on-year, and the sow price reached 1,908 yuan, up 40.8% year-on-year.
In Hunan Province, a large swine province, according to the Ministry of Animal Husbandry and Fisheries of the province's Animal Husbandry Department, the monitoring of animal husbandry products and feed prices in 22 trade markets throughout the province was conducted. In the last week of August, the average price of live pigs in Hunan exceeded 20 yuan.
Feng Yonghui, chief consultant of China Live Swine Early Warning Network, said that shortage of pigs is the direct cause of the recent rebound in hog prices. The price of pork is determined by the amount of supply. According to the data collected by the China Live Hog Warning Network, the actual supply of pigs this year is about 20% lower than last year.
Guo Huiyong, an analyst at Oriental Agri Consulting, told the Economic Information Daily that the price of pork went up and it was directly related to the rebound of live pig prices. Although the amount of live pigs slaughtered is much more than that in May and June, the supply of live pigs has not completely recovered, and local pigs have been greatly affected by the blue-ear disease epidemic. Due to the large number of small and medium sized households withdrawing from pig breeding, and the long period of large-scale breeding, the current sow restocking is much slower than in 2007. From the perspective of demand, with the approaching of the National Day, the peak season of consumption will come gradually and pork prices will increase at this time of the year. Therefore, it is expected that the high pork prices will continue into the first quarter of next year.
Zhang Chunlin, head of the Analysis and Forecasting Division of the Beijing Urban-Rural Economic Information Center, also judged that pork prices will remain high for a long period of time, and will decline before and after March 2012.
The impact of pulling the CPI ring higher than in August the price of agricultural products is not only a pork, edible oil prices, vegetable prices, chicken and egg prices have also increased.
In particular, the price of edible oil and the price of eggs have risen rapidly. According to the Xinhua News Agency's national agricultural and sideline products and agricultural materials price system monitoring, since mid-August, the price of pure soybean oil nationwide has risen significantly, and the year-on-year increase has increased. Monitoring data show that compared with August 10, September 5, pure soybean oil prices rose by 3.0%. From a regional perspective, more than 90% of the provinces and municipalities have increased the price of pure soybean oil. Chongqing, Hubei and Fujian topped the list, with 8.2%, 5.5% and 4.6% respectively. At present, the price of pure soybean oil in the country is substantially higher than that of the same period of last year, and the year-on-year increase has exceeded 20%.
According to the introduction of the new market in Beijing, at the end of August, the wholesale price of eggs in the new market reached 4.92 yuan, which hit a new high in recent years. The prices of eggs in Shanghai and Guangzhou also continued to hit new highs, and were all higher than Beijing's 0.2 yuan.
Driven by these major categories of agricultural products, the overall price of agricultural products has risen. According to the “National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Information Network†monitoring conducted by the Ministry of Agriculture, on September 6th, the wholesale price index of agricultural products was 198.4, and the wholesale price index of “vegetable basket†products was 199.9, which was 3.7 and 4.4 times higher than August 15th respectively (in 2000 100).
Market analysis believes that CPI will continue to rise month-on-month in August, driven by higher prices of agricultural products. Only due to the fall in hikes, the year-on-year increase in CPI will fall from July.
“We expect food prices to increase by 0.3 to 0.7 percentage points month-on-month in August. The year-on-year increase in non-food prices was unchanged from the previous month.†Tang Jianwei, Senior Macro Analyst, Financial Research Center, Bank of Communications (4.64, -0.02, -0.43%) "Economic Information Daily" reporter said: "Considering that the CPI carryover factor in August dropped by 0.6% compared with July, we initially judge that the CPI increase in August may be around 6%."
Alerting to the increase in food prices may accelerate the forecast of agricultural product prices during the year, vegetable and egg prices are expected to fall, pork prices are expected to remain high, and food prices may increase faster.
Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Economic Information Daily that there are two general factors for the rise in agricultural product prices, cyclical and seasonal. Vegetables are typically products that are subject to seasonal price increases. Although there are still uncertainties in the climate in the coming months, it is not ruled out that the prices of individual types of vegetables may rise sharply, but overall, it is difficult for the price of vegetables to continue to rise.
According to the analysis of the new market in Beijing, the current output of eggs is increasing day by day. Mainly after April of this year, the willingness of chicken farms to make up the bar was strong. The stock of laying hens in the chicken farm was sufficient. A large number of new chickens were entering the laying season and the peak period of egg production. The current high prices and some southern provinces and cities Higher prices have a direct relationship, and have a certain relationship with the approaching Mid-Autumn Festival and the upcoming school start. It is difficult to continue for a long time.
However, pork prices will remain high during the year, and food price increases may accelerate. Li Guoxiang said that one of the reasons for the rise in pork prices is the rise in feed prices.
The Animal Husbandry and Animal Husbandry Department of the Hunan Provincial Animal Husbandry and Aquatic Products Bureau stated that from the perspective of supply and demand, the current domestic corn crop is still in a state of ignorance. With the continuous depletion of inventories, the market surplus is relatively limited, the tight supply and demand situation cannot be improved in the short term, and the upward trend of feed prices is difficult to reverse. Compared with the same period of last year, the feeds for corn, soybean meal and finishing pigs rose by 15.77%, 6.65% and 9.86%, respectively.
The overall food price may also accelerate its rise. Li Guoxiang said that from the point of view of agricultural production this year, although summer grain has reversed the trend of production cuts last year, last year's rice output in the summer crop decreased by 6.1% year-on-year, and this year it increased production by 4.5%, and has not returned to normal supply levels. From the perspective of the big autumn crops, if the situation is good, the output will be able to maintain stability.
The report released by China Investment Securities predicts that in the second half of the year, domestic food prices will accelerate. Among them, the increase in the price of corn has stabilized, soybeans have risen, and rice has risen.
The high prices of agricultural products such as grain prices may lead to continued high CPI in the future. Wang Jian, secretary-general of the National Macroeconomics Committee of the National Development and Reform Commission, told the Economic Information Daily that the current price increase was mainly driven by food. In recent years, the increase in food prices has been more than double the overall CPI, and the core of food is food. This spring, the first drought in the spring, and then the disaster in May, this rare catastrophic climate may have an adverse effect on food production this year. If food production is reduced, the food-driven inflation process will continue in the third and fourth quarters. Especially in November when the autumn grain is listed. It is expected that the CPI will not fall below 5% for the whole year.
Since 2000, China’s three rounds of rising prices have been driven by higher food prices. How to stabilize food prices and ensure stable price trends, experts believe that mainly rely on the government to strengthen regulation.
In view of the high price of pork, Zhang Chunlin suggested adjusting the timing of the subsidy policy. He told the "Economic Information Daily" reporter that from 2007 to 2008, the hog industry shrank, soaring pork prices caused the governments of all levels to attach great importance, and actively introduced the pig breeding subsidy policy, making the pig industry recover quickly. In January 2009, in order to prevent pig prices from falling too quickly, pork purchase and storage policies were introduced. The purpose of these policies is to protect production and stabilize the price of pigs. From the perspective of the implementation of policies, the policy has not only failed to change the periodic fluctuations in the price of pigs, but has also shortened the cycle of fluctuations. Looking back now, the timing of the introduction of the policy is very important. When the pork price is high and the farmers' enthusiasm for expanding production capacity is high, the government should appropriately control the excessive growth of production capacity through policies. When the price of pork is low and the farmers' confidence is bleak, the government will issue a subsidy policy in due course to protect farmers' production enthusiasm, and then introduce a policy of purchasing and storage in a timely manner to curb the excessive decline in pork prices, so as to protect the sustainable development of the pig industry.
Second, adjust the interests of the pig industry. Zhang Chunlin said that in the entire pig industry chain, the farming sector has taken too many risks and the interests and risks are not equal. In fact, there is a problem of unequal interests and risks in the production of most agricultural products. The weak position of farmers and agriculture needs more attention from the government and the government.
Regarding how to stabilize overall agricultural product prices, Li Guoxiang gave four suggestions: First, cultivate large agricultural enterprises, let them play a leading role in the market, and improve the current organization of production and marketing of agricultural products. Second, strengthen government public services. The government should provide more efficient market information and better link production and sales of agricultural products. Third, the government should legally regulate the market order of the agricultural product market. Finally, we will strengthen the macro-control of agricultural products and improve the supply and demand of the domestic agricultural products market through measures such as increasing stocks and adjusting import/export scope.
"As long as the government does according to these points, it is believed that the price of agricultural products in China will maintain a steady growth. It will not cause people to reduce consumption and reduce the quality of life. It will not let farmers reduce their willingness to produce and damage farmers. Benefits," said Li Guoxiang.
Judging that the high pork prices will be monitored by the Ministry of Commerce in recent years, in the second two weeks of July, the price of pork in our country once fell back. However, by August, this situation has reversed. During the five-week period from August 1 to September 2, the price of pork has risen from flat to high and the increase has continued to increase.
The monitoring of other institutions also proved the high price of pork. The average price change of main foods in 50 cities of the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from August 21 to 30, the price of back hips per kilogram of pork rose by 0.7% from the previous period, and the price of pork rose by 0.5% from the previous period. According to the monitoring of the China Live Pigs Warning Network, on September 5, the price of piglets reached 46.46 yuan kilograms, up 131.5% year-on-year, and the sow price reached 1,908 yuan, up 40.8% year-on-year.
In Hunan Province, a large swine province, according to the Ministry of Animal Husbandry and Fisheries of the province's Animal Husbandry Department, the monitoring of animal husbandry products and feed prices in 22 trade markets throughout the province was conducted. In the last week of August, the average price of live pigs in Hunan exceeded 20 yuan.
Feng Yonghui, chief consultant of China Live Swine Early Warning Network, said that shortage of pigs is the direct cause of the recent rebound in hog prices. The price of pork is determined by the amount of supply. According to the data collected by the China Live Hog Warning Network, the actual supply of pigs this year is about 20% lower than last year.
Guo Huiyong, an analyst at Oriental Agri Consulting, told the Economic Information Daily that the price of pork went up and it was directly related to the rebound of live pig prices. Although the amount of live pigs slaughtered is much more than that in May and June, the supply of live pigs has not completely recovered, and local pigs have been greatly affected by the blue-ear disease epidemic. Due to the large number of small and medium sized households withdrawing from pig breeding, and the long period of large-scale breeding, the current sow restocking is much slower than in 2007. From the perspective of demand, with the approaching of the National Day, the peak season of consumption will come gradually and pork prices will increase at this time of the year. Therefore, it is expected that the high pork prices will continue into the first quarter of next year.
Zhang Chunlin, head of the Analysis and Forecasting Division of the Beijing Urban-Rural Economic Information Center, also judged that pork prices will remain high for a long period of time, and will decline before and after March 2012.
The impact of pulling the CPI ring higher than in August the price of agricultural products is not only a pork, edible oil prices, vegetable prices, chicken and egg prices have also increased.
In particular, the price of edible oil and the price of eggs have risen rapidly. According to the Xinhua News Agency's national agricultural and sideline products and agricultural materials price system monitoring, since mid-August, the price of pure soybean oil nationwide has risen significantly, and the year-on-year increase has increased. Monitoring data show that compared with August 10, September 5, pure soybean oil prices rose by 3.0%. From a regional perspective, more than 90% of the provinces and municipalities have increased the price of pure soybean oil. Chongqing, Hubei and Fujian topped the list, with 8.2%, 5.5% and 4.6% respectively. At present, the price of pure soybean oil in the country is substantially higher than that of the same period of last year, and the year-on-year increase has exceeded 20%.
According to the introduction of the new market in Beijing, at the end of August, the wholesale price of eggs in the new market reached 4.92 yuan, which hit a new high in recent years. The prices of eggs in Shanghai and Guangzhou also continued to hit new highs, and were all higher than Beijing's 0.2 yuan.
Driven by these major categories of agricultural products, the overall price of agricultural products has risen. According to the “National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Information Network†monitoring conducted by the Ministry of Agriculture, on September 6th, the wholesale price index of agricultural products was 198.4, and the wholesale price index of “vegetable basket†products was 199.9, which was 3.7 and 4.4 times higher than August 15th respectively (in 2000 100).
Market analysis believes that CPI will continue to rise month-on-month in August, driven by higher prices of agricultural products. Only due to the fall in hikes, the year-on-year increase in CPI will fall from July.
“We expect food prices to increase by 0.3 to 0.7 percentage points month-on-month in August. The year-on-year increase in non-food prices was unchanged from the previous month.†Tang Jianwei, Senior Macro Analyst, Financial Research Center, Bank of Communications (4.64, -0.02, -0.43%) "Economic Information Daily" reporter said: "Considering that the CPI carryover factor in August dropped by 0.6% compared with July, we initially judge that the CPI increase in August may be around 6%."
Alerting to the increase in food prices may accelerate the forecast of agricultural product prices during the year, vegetable and egg prices are expected to fall, pork prices are expected to remain high, and food prices may increase faster.
Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Economic Information Daily that there are two general factors for the rise in agricultural product prices, cyclical and seasonal. Vegetables are typically products that are subject to seasonal price increases. Although there are still uncertainties in the climate in the coming months, it is not ruled out that the prices of individual types of vegetables may rise sharply, but overall, it is difficult for the price of vegetables to continue to rise.
According to the analysis of the new market in Beijing, the current output of eggs is increasing day by day. Mainly after April of this year, the willingness of chicken farms to make up the bar was strong. The stock of laying hens in the chicken farm was sufficient. A large number of new chickens were entering the laying season and the peak period of egg production. The current high prices and some southern provinces and cities Higher prices have a direct relationship, and have a certain relationship with the approaching Mid-Autumn Festival and the upcoming school start. It is difficult to continue for a long time.
However, pork prices will remain high during the year, and food price increases may accelerate. Li Guoxiang said that one of the reasons for the rise in pork prices is the rise in feed prices.
The Animal Husbandry and Animal Husbandry Department of the Hunan Provincial Animal Husbandry and Aquatic Products Bureau stated that from the perspective of supply and demand, the current domestic corn crop is still in a state of ignorance. With the continuous depletion of inventories, the market surplus is relatively limited, the tight supply and demand situation cannot be improved in the short term, and the upward trend of feed prices is difficult to reverse. Compared with the same period of last year, the feeds for corn, soybean meal and finishing pigs rose by 15.77%, 6.65% and 9.86%, respectively.
The overall food price may also accelerate its rise. Li Guoxiang said that from the point of view of agricultural production this year, although summer grain has reversed the trend of production cuts last year, last year's rice output in the summer crop decreased by 6.1% year-on-year, and this year it increased production by 4.5%, and has not returned to normal supply levels. From the perspective of the big autumn crops, if the situation is good, the output will be able to maintain stability.
The report released by China Investment Securities predicts that in the second half of the year, domestic food prices will accelerate. Among them, the increase in the price of corn has stabilized, soybeans have risen, and rice has risen.
The high prices of agricultural products such as grain prices may lead to continued high CPI in the future. Wang Jian, secretary-general of the National Macroeconomics Committee of the National Development and Reform Commission, told the Economic Information Daily that the current price increase was mainly driven by food. In recent years, the increase in food prices has been more than double the overall CPI, and the core of food is food. This spring, the first drought in the spring, and then the disaster in May, this rare catastrophic climate may have an adverse effect on food production this year. If food production is reduced, the food-driven inflation process will continue in the third and fourth quarters. Especially in November when the autumn grain is listed. It is expected that the CPI will not fall below 5% for the whole year.
Since 2000, China’s three rounds of rising prices have been driven by higher food prices. How to stabilize food prices and ensure stable price trends, experts believe that mainly rely on the government to strengthen regulation.
In view of the high price of pork, Zhang Chunlin suggested adjusting the timing of the subsidy policy. He told the "Economic Information Daily" reporter that from 2007 to 2008, the hog industry shrank, soaring pork prices caused the governments of all levels to attach great importance, and actively introduced the pig breeding subsidy policy, making the pig industry recover quickly. In January 2009, in order to prevent pig prices from falling too quickly, pork purchase and storage policies were introduced. The purpose of these policies is to protect production and stabilize the price of pigs. From the perspective of the implementation of policies, the policy has not only failed to change the periodic fluctuations in the price of pigs, but has also shortened the cycle of fluctuations. Looking back now, the timing of the introduction of the policy is very important. When the pork price is high and the farmers' enthusiasm for expanding production capacity is high, the government should appropriately control the excessive growth of production capacity through policies. When the price of pork is low and the farmers' confidence is bleak, the government will issue a subsidy policy in due course to protect farmers' production enthusiasm, and then introduce a policy of purchasing and storage in a timely manner to curb the excessive decline in pork prices, so as to protect the sustainable development of the pig industry.
Second, adjust the interests of the pig industry. Zhang Chunlin said that in the entire pig industry chain, the farming sector has taken too many risks and the interests and risks are not equal. In fact, there is a problem of unequal interests and risks in the production of most agricultural products. The weak position of farmers and agriculture needs more attention from the government and the government.
Regarding how to stabilize overall agricultural product prices, Li Guoxiang gave four suggestions: First, cultivate large agricultural enterprises, let them play a leading role in the market, and improve the current organization of production and marketing of agricultural products. Second, strengthen government public services. The government should provide more efficient market information and better link production and sales of agricultural products. Third, the government should legally regulate the market order of the agricultural product market. Finally, we will strengthen the macro-control of agricultural products and improve the supply and demand of the domestic agricultural products market through measures such as increasing stocks and adjusting import/export scope.
"As long as the government does according to these points, it is believed that the price of agricultural products in China will maintain a steady growth. It will not cause people to reduce consumption and reduce the quality of life. It will not let farmers reduce their willingness to produce and damage farmers. Benefits," said Li Guoxiang.
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