Around the New Year, sugar prices rose sharply inside and outside, plunging and soaring, alternating for the future of the sugar market in 2011.
After the rise in 2009 and 2010, the current domestic and international sugar prices are all at historically high levels, and the possibility of expanding sugar production in 2011 is very high. The global sugar supply has reason to believe that it is shifting from a shortage to a surplus, but weather conditions make this process of change uncertain. Originally, at the beginning of 2010, there were already signs of increasing global sugar production. Most authoritative institutions have predicted that there may be an oversupply phenomenon. It is only due to weather disturbances (Brazil, Russian drought, excessive rainfall in Pakistan and Australia, etc.) achieve.
Due to the phenomenon of bananas, cassava, and fast-growing crops and sugar cane competing for land in the country, the potential for expanding sugarcane varieties in the future may be limited. Considering the crop growth pattern, there will not be much room for expanding sugarcane planting in 2011 (even if there is a competitive advantage due to high sugar price), whether the sugar will significantly increase depends on the weather conditions (ie, the main factors affecting the yield). . The production of sugar beet in the north is the hope for the future of sugar in China. When the price of sugar reaches a historic high, it can be expected that the beet planting in 2011 will go further.
In addition to the supply and demand situation, the loose economic environment is also an important factor in pushing the price of sugar to touch the historical high. Since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the U.S. federal benchmark interest rate has been lowered to its lowest level in nearly 40 years, and the U.S. dollar index has been hovering in the near future. International crude oil prices fluctuate around 80 US dollars/barrel. Although they have not returned to the 2008 high, they are still high in history. Therefore, the upward trend of international sugar prices in 2009 that continued in 2009 was caused by a combination of multiple factors. If these factors do not disappear, the support for sugar prices will continue to exist.
Since the second half of 2010, due to the rapid rise in the prices of consumer goods (mainly food), the government’s efforts to regulate prices of major agricultural products, including sugar, have continued to increase. Compared with the international market, the volatility of domestic sugar prices is relatively mild. ICE11# raw sugar touched 30 cents/lb in early 2010, and hit 13 cents/lb at a minimum during the subsequent fall. At the end of the year, it once again exceeded 30 cents to hit a high in nearly 30 years. The annual amplitude exceeded 150%! Zhengzhou white sugar futures rose close to 5,900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, falling back to about 4,700 yuan/ton in May, and peaking at 7,500 yuan/ton in the beginning of November, with an amplitude of 60%.
The relative stability of domestic sugar prices is inseparable from policy adjustment. Although the gap between supply and demand is close to 3 million tons, the country has accumulated a total of 1.71 million tons of discarded storage in eight times, which has greatly eased the contradiction between supply and demand. In addition, imported sugar of 1.36 million tons has basically achieved a balance between supply and demand in 2009/2010. However, the main reason for the general increase in commodity prices is due to expectations of future inflation. If monetary policy is not significantly adjusted, then the effect of throwing stock prices alone to control prices may not be able to achieve expectations. Therefore, the follow-up control policy still deserves close attention.
In summary, the supply and demand situation of sugar at home and abroad is expected to ease in 2011, and the price of sugar may show wide fluctuations. At the beginning of this year, we must continue to pay attention to guidelines on production progress and policy adjustments. After the Spring Festival, the domestic production situation is basically clear. The subject of frost will be digested and the demand may gradually fade. This may cause a new fall. Whether the expansion of sugarcane planting in the second quarter requires a lot of attention, when the Brazilian main producing area is opened and pressed, the main trend of the outer disk should be clear, and the sugar price may find suitable support to stabilize. There may be a rebound in the second half of the year. The size of the efforts will depend on the production situation of major sugar producing countries. In addition, the impact of the monetary policy of the U.S. and Chinese government on the market may be consistent throughout the year.
In summary, the high price of sugar in the whole year is more likely to appear at the beginning of the year, and the rest of the time may see a wide range of fluctuations in the red. The main fluctuation range of Zheng sugar is expected to be between 5000-7000 yuan.
After the rise in 2009 and 2010, the current domestic and international sugar prices are all at historically high levels, and the possibility of expanding sugar production in 2011 is very high. The global sugar supply has reason to believe that it is shifting from a shortage to a surplus, but weather conditions make this process of change uncertain. Originally, at the beginning of 2010, there were already signs of increasing global sugar production. Most authoritative institutions have predicted that there may be an oversupply phenomenon. It is only due to weather disturbances (Brazil, Russian drought, excessive rainfall in Pakistan and Australia, etc.) achieve.
Due to the phenomenon of bananas, cassava, and fast-growing crops and sugar cane competing for land in the country, the potential for expanding sugarcane varieties in the future may be limited. Considering the crop growth pattern, there will not be much room for expanding sugarcane planting in 2011 (even if there is a competitive advantage due to high sugar price), whether the sugar will significantly increase depends on the weather conditions (ie, the main factors affecting the yield). . The production of sugar beet in the north is the hope for the future of sugar in China. When the price of sugar reaches a historic high, it can be expected that the beet planting in 2011 will go further.
In addition to the supply and demand situation, the loose economic environment is also an important factor in pushing the price of sugar to touch the historical high. Since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the U.S. federal benchmark interest rate has been lowered to its lowest level in nearly 40 years, and the U.S. dollar index has been hovering in the near future. International crude oil prices fluctuate around 80 US dollars/barrel. Although they have not returned to the 2008 high, they are still high in history. Therefore, the upward trend of international sugar prices in 2009 that continued in 2009 was caused by a combination of multiple factors. If these factors do not disappear, the support for sugar prices will continue to exist.
Since the second half of 2010, due to the rapid rise in the prices of consumer goods (mainly food), the government’s efforts to regulate prices of major agricultural products, including sugar, have continued to increase. Compared with the international market, the volatility of domestic sugar prices is relatively mild. ICE11# raw sugar touched 30 cents/lb in early 2010, and hit 13 cents/lb at a minimum during the subsequent fall. At the end of the year, it once again exceeded 30 cents to hit a high in nearly 30 years. The annual amplitude exceeded 150%! Zhengzhou white sugar futures rose close to 5,900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, falling back to about 4,700 yuan/ton in May, and peaking at 7,500 yuan/ton in the beginning of November, with an amplitude of 60%.
The relative stability of domestic sugar prices is inseparable from policy adjustment. Although the gap between supply and demand is close to 3 million tons, the country has accumulated a total of 1.71 million tons of discarded storage in eight times, which has greatly eased the contradiction between supply and demand. In addition, imported sugar of 1.36 million tons has basically achieved a balance between supply and demand in 2009/2010. However, the main reason for the general increase in commodity prices is due to expectations of future inflation. If monetary policy is not significantly adjusted, then the effect of throwing stock prices alone to control prices may not be able to achieve expectations. Therefore, the follow-up control policy still deserves close attention.
In summary, the supply and demand situation of sugar at home and abroad is expected to ease in 2011, and the price of sugar may show wide fluctuations. At the beginning of this year, we must continue to pay attention to guidelines on production progress and policy adjustments. After the Spring Festival, the domestic production situation is basically clear. The subject of frost will be digested and the demand may gradually fade. This may cause a new fall. Whether the expansion of sugarcane planting in the second quarter requires a lot of attention, when the Brazilian main producing area is opened and pressed, the main trend of the outer disk should be clear, and the sugar price may find suitable support to stabilize. There may be a rebound in the second half of the year. The size of the efforts will depend on the production situation of major sugar producing countries. In addition, the impact of the monetary policy of the U.S. and Chinese government on the market may be consistent throughout the year.
In summary, the high price of sugar in the whole year is more likely to appear at the beginning of the year, and the rest of the time may see a wide range of fluctuations in the red. The main fluctuation range of Zheng sugar is expected to be between 5000-7000 yuan.
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